Cutting funding to the NDIS would have serious implications for the wider Australian economy, with women the hardest hit, according to new research which casts fresh doubt over claims the scheme is unsustainable.
Peak body National Disability Services has published the analysis as it launches a new campaign urging candidates to reject cuts to the scheme ahead of the next federal election.
Debate over the future of the NDIS has raged throughout the year, with the federal government arguing a higher than expected increase in participant numbers and individual costs have put the scheme on an unsustainable trajectory.
Disability advocates, Labor and the Greens have disputed the government's figures, which they claimed were being pushed to justify cost cuts and contentious reforms - including the now abandoned introduction of independent assessments.
NDIS Minister Linda Reynolds has previously ruled out budget cuts, but continues to sound warnings about the scheme's cost and long-term sustainability.
In a report to be published on Thursday, progressive think tank Per Capita examined the cost and benefits of the NDIS and scrutinised the government's controversial cost projections.
The analysis found the scheme was a major economic multiplier, with every dollar of investment delivering a return of $2.25 as a result of job creation and spending on small local businesses.
On those numbers, the scheme would have delivered a $52 billion economic boost to the nation in the past financial year.
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The report warned that "excessive cost cutting" would be "self defeating", given any savings would effectively be offset by lost economic benefits.
The analysis found that every billion dollars cut from the scheme would result in the loss of more than 10,200 full-time jobs.
Women would account for the overwhelming majority of job losses, the research suggested.
The report also raised fresh questions about the figures the Morrison government was relying on to justify its concerns about the scheme's sustainability.
Under intense pressure over a lack of transparency, the National Disability Insurance Agency this year published an abridged version of its secret annual sustainability report, which includes modelling on the scheme's future cost.
The modelling projected that total participant costs would balloon $22.6 billion over budget in the next four years, on the back of higher than expected numbers of people joining the scheme, lower exit rates and growing individual budgets.
The Per Capita report said that while it was difficult to properly interrogate the modelling given that assumptions underpinning it remained secret, there were a number of red flags with the figures.
Its report cast doubt over the projections for participant numbers and exit rates, and criticised what it considered to be a failure to investigate how costs could have risen so quickly.
National Disability Services president Rohan Braddy said the analysis demonstrated how the scheme had been a "transformative economic and social reform".
"We have been concerned to see the focus change over the past year from the benefits of the scheme to the cost, with ongoing attempts to restrict access to the scheme and reducing supports available," Mr Braddy said.
The campaign, to be launched on Thursday, will warn the public that cuts to the NDIS will have "devastating" consequences for people with a disability, their families, carers and support workers - along with the wider Australian economy.
It will call on all federal election candidates to reject funding cuts to the scheme.
from https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/…
Alarm over NDIS power grab which could give more control to NDIA chief Martin Hoffman and minister Linda Reynolds
A political fight is brewing over proposed changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme which the ACT government fears could effectively hand "total control" of the scheme to a federal minister and "unfettered power" to their agency's boss.
One of the founding fathers of the scheme has raised similar concerns about the Morrison government's proposed legislation, fearing provisions which give the National Disability Insurance Agency chief executive new power to alter a participant's plan without their permission could result in funding cuts.
A spokeswoman for NDIS Minister Linda Reynolds has dismissed concerns about the new power, insisting it was "entirely consistent" with the long-standing process for plan reviews and would only be used in limited circumstances.
That could include emergency situations, such as when a participant needed urgent equipment repairs or crisis accommodation as they fled domestic violence.
She said no changes to a participant's plan would be made without their "knowledge and involvement".
Four months after dumping its controversial independent assessments proposal amid pressure from the disability community, the states and political opponents, the Coalition is facing another fight over the NDIS on the eve of the next federal election.
The government is trying to push through legislative amendments which it believes will improve the scheme for its more than 450,000 participants.
The main feature is the introduction of a so-called Participant Service Guarantee, which would hold the National Disability Insurance Agency accountable to certain standards, including timeframes for making decisions about plans.
Changes buried in the 53-page bill have sparked alarm in the disability community and prompted push back from sector leaders, legal experts, the states and the federal Greens.
The most contentious change would hand the agency's chief executive - currently Martin Hoffman - new power to vary a participant's plan without their permission, in line with a set of rules.
Participants could also request changes.
The new bill would also grant the federal minister - currently Linda Reynolds - the power to amend those rules without formal agreement from the states and territories, despite the fact they co-fund the $26 billion scheme.
Critics say the changes would represent a huge transfer of power to the Commonwealth.
A Senate committee is conducting an inquiry into the draft bill, with witnesses including ACT Minister for Disability Emma Davidson expected to give evidence at a hearing on Friday.
In a submission on behalf of the ACT government, Ms Davidson said the changes could "effectively transfer total control of the NDIS to the Commonwealth minister, and unfettered powers to the NDIA chief executive".
The NSW Coalition government also raised concerns about the "unconstrained" power to vary plans in its submission.
Ms Davidson told The Canberra Times that the proposed new powers for the agency's boss were "just not acceptable" for the disability community.
The Greens minister again criticised the timing of the proposal, which was circulated for four weeks of public consultation at a time when the ACT, NSW and Victoria were battling coronavirus outbreaks.
Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John wants the government to abandon the changes. Picture: Sitthixay Ditthavong
Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John wants the government to abandon the changes. Picture: Sitthixay Ditthavong
The disability community remains scarred by the handling of independent assessments, which Mr Hoffman and Senator Reynolds publicly apologised for before and after the plan was ultimately dumped.
"These [new] amendments are being proposed to a community of people who don't have a strong foundation of trust in the agency or the minister," Ms Davidson said.
Former National Disability Insurance Agency chairman Bruce Bonyhady has also sounded the alarm about the changes, which he said were as big a threat to the NDIS as the much-criticised independent assessments.
Professor Bonyhady told The Canberra Times that the changes would significantly undermine the scheme as a partnership between the states and the Commonwealth.
The Melbourne Disability Institute director feared the proposed new powers to change plans could result in cuts to participant budgets.
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He said the bill shouldn't be passed in its current form, arguing that if rules were to be changed the states and territories should have to agree to them. The NSW and WA Labor governments made similar points in their submissions.
"These changes, for at best a very marginal benefit, come with very significant risks for the integrity and the purpose of the scheme," he said.
The federal Greens' disability spokesman, Jordan Steele-John, called on the government to abandon the bill.
"Disabled people do not want the changes proposed by the Liberal government," he said.
"The community is demanding their baseline right, having choice and control over the support they receive through the NDIS."
"The changes proposed by the Liberals are putting this at risk. If the amendments are successful, they would allow people's NDIS plans to be changed, without their agreement - this could include removing supports without understanding their circumstances."
Senator Reynolds' spokeswoman said the new powers would provide a "much more flexible way to vary a participant's plans for their benefit".
Under the current rules, changes to a participant's budget require a review of their entire plan.
While the federal minister would not need agreement from the states and territories to change rules relating to the new powers, they would need to be consulted.
The spokeswoman pointed out that any changes could be struck out in the Senate.